Ep. 703 - Breaking News: 2025 Duck Numbers are Released
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VO:Can we do a mic check, please? Everybody, welcome back to the Ducks Unlimited podcast. I'm your host, doctor Mike Brazier.
VO:I'm your host, Katie Burke.
VO:I'm your host, doctor Jared Hemphill. And I'm your host, Matt Harrison.
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Mike Brasher:Hey, everyone. Welcome in to the Ducks Unlimited podcast studio here at National Headquarters. I'm doctor Mike Brasher, and here I have, I guess, my cohost on this special live episode, doctor Jared Henson. Jared, just an ordinary Tuesday here.
Jerad Henson:Just an ordinary Tuesday. Nothing special. Special. Special. People running around like
Mike Brasher:a Chinese
Jerad Henson:fire drill today. We talked about
Mike Brasher:this a couple weeks ago. This is the big day when the US Fish and Wildlife Service releases its waterfowl population status report that provides the latest update on estimates, so forth of all sorts of waterfowl species across North America. There is a ton of information to get into. This is what the report kind of looks like freshly printed out. Adam Grimm's Spectacle to Eiders on the twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six federal duck stamp there.
Mike Brasher:Plug for buying a duck stamp. Everybody go buy a duck stamp for two So today, right now, we just wanted to bring a really quick introduction overview of what we have thus far gleaned out of the waterfowl population status report. I will again reiterate, I will again state and thank our US Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and all the member agencies of the Pacific Central Mississippi Flyway Councils for the incredible work that they do. All the data that you see coming out of this report, all the data that you see on the Ducks Unlimited website, social media, etcetera, that comes from those member agencies, organizations. We are just We have the pleasure of helping bring that information to
Jerad Henson:you It's because it's not our numbers.
Mike Brasher:It's what we live for, it's what we Our conservation is built for, is to support these populations, and so it's annually a treat to be able to share that with you. Thank you for choosing Ducks for the information. Quickly, Jared, I'm gonna get your thoughts here in a second, just the top number, total ducks in the traditional survey area, 33,980,000, which is virtually unchanged from last year. The estimate in 2024 was 33.988, so no change there. That is down 4% or 4% below the long term average, essentially the same place where we were this time last year.
Mike Brasher:The other big number that comes out of the traditional survey area this time of year in this report is the May Pond number, and those that follow harvest regulations closely will know that that is important for a couple of reasons. It's an indicator of habitat conditions. For this year, and what we might expect in terms of productivity out of that landscape, it came in at 4,200,000, which was down 19% from last year when the pond estimate was 5,160,000. Notably, that is the lowest pond estimate across US and Canadian Prairies combined since, I believe, 2024. The other number 02/2004.
Mike Brasher:I'm sorry, you're right.
Jerad Henson:02/2004.
Mike Brasher:Yeah. Thanks for catching me.
Jerad Henson:Yeah, it's down substantially since, so Yeah.
Mike Brasher:Other big number, I'll go through two other species number here real quick. Mallard, 6,600,000 or 6,500,000, which is unchanged or down just 1%, which is really insignificant from last year at 6,600,000, but it is still at 17% below the long term average, and then pintails, this is one that I think a lot of people were really interested in, what was gonna happen. It actually is one of it's one of the few species that has shown a measurable increase since last year. It is up 13% to 2,200,000. Last year, it was 1,980,000, but still 41% below long term average.
Mike Brasher:I also have the Eastern survey area numbers that we're going to highlight in a second, but Jared, reactions.
Jerad Henson:With such dry conditions last year, I was surprised to see duck numbers stay the same, I really was, which goes to show that duck populations are resilient, that they were able to make a living last year, and at least they got at least 20% production, right, to maintain those numbers. That's the thing, it's amazing to see how ducks can respond to challenging habitat conditions. That's the first big thing. The second one is that maypawn count is down.
Mike Brasher:It's a little dry. Scott Stevens said it, dry.
Jerad Henson:It's dry. Yep. And we we talked about that on the last episode. We've been talking about it all spring. Yeah.
Jerad Henson:In summer, it's been dry. I mean, people talking about wildfires up in the Boreal And Prairies being dry, potholes dry, and so the numbers are coming to fruition. Yeah.
Mike Brasher:Yeah, they are. This is the point where I would probably say, you know, that one data point that I brought up in a number of conversations about me shooting a lot of young birds late in the season last year gave me an indication that there was some production last year. I mean, I feel vindicated that that one data just kidding. That one data point told the story.
Jerad Henson:That's
Mike Brasher:it. But the other thing that we'll remind folks is the breeding population estimate we have this spring is is what was left over from last year. That's So there was some production last year. The other take home is that this year, the habitat conditions are are poorer, are not as good. I mean, as bad as as dry as they were in some landscapes last year, they're even drier this year.
Mike Brasher:There was some moisture a little bit later in the spring,
Jerad Henson:but we don't expect
Mike Brasher:a big impact on that. So next year is gonna already looking forward to next year, I guess, this time in terms of what those numbers are gonna be, but next year could be the year where we see a little more dry.
Jerad Henson:Well, and as a duck hunter, I think one of the things you can note looking at this is I can expect some wary birds. You got mature birds.
Mike Brasher:Yeah,
Jerad Henson:yeah. And a mature a mature duck is good at not getting shot.
Mike Brasher:Yeah. That's right. Are gonna be a
Jerad Henson:few game plan.
Mike Brasher:Yeah. There are gonna be a few bright spots in terms of of habitat conditions. We're not gonna cover all those right now. We're gonna keep this very short. I will, because tonight at seven p.
Mike Brasher:M. Central time, from seven to nine, we're going to be doing our annual waterfowl season outlook livestream. We're doing it different this year where we're going the night that the report is released. There's a little bit more pressure. Well, it's a little bit more pressure if you want to get into the details, but because we don't have so much time to prepare and get into the details, it takes some of that pressure off.
Mike Brasher:We're to have a more organic conversation in studio. I'm going have Jimbo Robinson from our event system, also going to have Lake Pickle with On X Hunt who will be joining us. We thank them for sponsoring our duck numbers, the waterfowl season outlook. Really excited about that. We're going to have about six or seven folks joining us remote from different parts of the country, different parts of the continent, I should say, so make sure you tune in for that, live tonight, seven p.
Mike Brasher:M. Central. Quickly, we'll talk about the Eastern Survey Area, and then I'm going to give sort of a preview of what people can expect from harvest regulations at the very end here. Eastern Survey Area was, again, a little bit of a bright spot, I guess you might say, relative to the overall trend, declining trends that we've seen in portions of the traditional survey area. The overall duck numbers or species numbers out of the Eastern Survey area were largely the same as last year.
Mike Brasher:Mallards were unchanged at 1,140,000, the same as last year. It's down 10% from the long term average. Black ducks came in 6% below last year at at 790,000. Last year, was 840,000, but those types of things are not statistically significant.
Jerad Henson:No. That's probably pretty close to the error of this survey.
Mike Brasher:Yeah.
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Mike Brasher:Green wings were down a little bit. Ringnecks were up a little bit. Goldeneye, down 25%, but I believe last year was when they they really spiked up. So Right. You know, could be some I I if you're a Goldeneye hunter, those populations are are still in good shape.
Mike Brasher:Mergansers too, unchanged from last year. Wood ducks, unchanged from last year, and that's kind of what we expected because habitat conditions in the East, Eastern Canada especially, are always, are typically more stable. More stable. That's the same thing that we're kind of seeing also from habitat conditions out of the East, so pretty, you know, good to excellent in the East are some of the things that we're hearing. Again, we'll get into that in more detail tonight.
Mike Brasher:Tonight.
Jerad Henson:Yeah. And I think one of the the takeaways here, kind of looking, is that the Eastern mallard population is is not dropping as fast as it has been in recent years, and so that was kind of a little bright point there. So no increase sometimes is not a bad thing as long as it's not a decrease.
Mike Brasher:In terms of harvest regulations, that's one of the things that folks really want to know about, because the data collected throughout the year that is presented in these reports factors heavily into that. The US Fish and Wildlife Service also releases its adaptive harvest management report today. We haven't looked through it in detail yet, but I can I'm fairly confident saying that we expect hunting regulations when we talk about duck season frameworks, mallard bag limits in the East, pintails, that's gonna be one that a lot of people were also looking to. Those are expected to be unchanged for the twenty sixth, twenty seventh season. We expect the Fish and Wildlife Service to make recommendations, I guess you would say, that would reflect being unchanged from this year.
Mike Brasher:Blue wing teal were down a little bit in the traditional survey area, so if you paid attention last year to what happened with their early teal season going from a sixteen day to a nine day season, we expect that to continue again next year. A lot has to happen between now and whenever those regulations become formal, but on the surface, that's what it's looking like. So a pretty you know, it's there weren't of a surprises, you might say, like, in terms there weren't a
Jerad Henson:lot of
Mike Brasher:dramatic decreases or dramatic increases, it was like No. Birds held their own They did. Right
Jerad Henson:One of the other little bright points I guess you could take away is is redheads and canvas bags. Yep. I mean, that's if you're a diving duck hunter, then your fall and winter looked pretty good.
Mike Brasher:You're okay with that, yeah. And that was a bright spot. They were, what did I say, they were up? Redheads were up 17%, canvas bags up 22%. Blue wings down 4%, I don't think I went over that whenever I was talking about this initially.
Mike Brasher:Green wings down 15%, but they're still above the long term average. A few other species in here that we'll get to tonight, but the big story, overall duck population stayed stable, conditions got really dry in the spring, I think they're still pretty dry up there right now. We're going to have a report from Doctor. Scott Stevens and Doctor. Matt Dyson tonight.
Mike Brasher:They were out teal hunting the past couple of days, or at least yesterday, I don't I
Jerad Henson:saw them.
Mike Brasher:Yeah, and so, and maybe even today too, so I'm not sure, but we're going to get a report from them tonight on how their hunting was, what they saw in terms of habitat conditions up there in the Prairies, and we'll have a lot more information for you, I guess.
Jerad Henson:It will be interesting to hear what they have to say, what they're seeing, to talk with our Canadian counterparts and listen to their side of the story, because we've heard it, but it'll be interesting to hear from them, and let the listeners hear from them.
Mike Brasher:Yep. We're gonna have a variety of DU staff. We're also gonna have Fish and Wildlife Service staff member Josh Dooley, goose specialist. He's gonna give us a lot of information on goose population estimates and some insights there. Taylor Finger from Wisconsin, Department of Natural Resources, is going to join us and talk about some of their work, how they participate in these surveys and give us an update maybe on what they found in their state, how it factors into everything related to harvest and other larger populations.
Jerad Henson:That'll be interesting to hear from him because I think Wisconsin was a little different from some of the other Great Lakes states as far as habitats.
Mike Brasher:Yeah. Yeah. So that's where we're gonna leave it right now. Like I said, we've got a lot of information to cover tonight, two hours worth, tons of great guests, and tune in, watch, continue to watch our our DU social media channels to get the link for that, and we'll see you tonight. There's your initial preview, your initial coverage of the 2025 US Fish and Wildlife Service waterfowl status report.
Jerad Henson:It's, yeah. The page is up on our website,
Mike Brasher:and you get a
Jerad Henson:link to the full report from there, so if you want to do a deep dive between now and then, please tune in, you'll have some really great insights from the talk this evening.
Mike Brasher:That's right, thanks for reminding me of that, Jared, ducks.org/ducknumbers. That's where you can find a lot more coverage. Stay tuned to our social media channels, and thanks to our sponsor of the 2025 waterfowl, duck numbers and tonight's waterfowl season outlook, on x hunt. So we'll see you tonight, folks. Thanks for tuning in.
VO:Thank you for listening to the DU podcast sponsored by Purina Pro Plan, the official performance dog food of Ducks Unlimited. Purina Pro Plan, always advancing. Also proudly sponsored by Bird Dog Whiskey and Cocktails. Whether you're winding down with your best friend or celebrating with your favorite crew, Bird Dog brings award winning flavor to every moment. Enjoy responsibly.
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